The paper book, reconstituted to the 15 strongest opportunities — good companies the market is doubting — each sized by conviction adjusted for volatility. Below, the reason each company was selected, at its weight.
Regime: Risk-on (S&P above its 200-day average) — fully invested.
| Company | Weight | Verdict | Action | Why it’s included — tied to strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPRT Copart, Inc. | 10.2% | Unearned doubt | Unchanged | The market's doubt looks unearned — Institutional trimming and valuation pullback; no earnings miss, guidance cut, demand decline, or regulatory action. Sized at one of the largest volatility-adjusted weights; already near target, so the 20% no-trade band left the position unchanged. |
| RMD ResMed Inc. | 9.0% | Unearned doubt | Unchanged | The market's doubt looks unearned — Price decline amid strong fundamentals (record FCF, revenue growth). No hard negatives, analyst downgrades, or secular questions evident. Sized at one of the largest volatility-adjusted weights; already near target, so the 20% no-trade band left the position unchanged. |
| NFLX Netflix, Inc. | 8.7% | Unearned doubt | Unchanged | The market's doubt looks unearned — Price pullback (40% YTD, near 52-week low) with no earnings miss, guidance cut, or fundamental deterioration mentioned. Stock buyback signals management confidence. Sized at a full volatility-adjusted weight; already near target, so the 20% no-trade band left the position unchanged. |
| LULU Lululemon Athletica Inc. | 8.7% | Open debate | Unchanged | A genuine, still-unresolved debate rather than proven trouble, so its score was left unchanged — Consumer trend shift and top-line growth stagnation are real secular questions, not transient noise or hard misses. Sized at a full volatility-adjusted weight; already near target, so the 20% no-trade band left the position unchanged. |
| ADSK Autodesk, Inc. | 8.4% | Unearned doubt | Unchanged | The market's doubt looks unearned — Recent price weakness amid broad market moves; offset by new Buy initiation and institutional buying. Sized at a full volatility-adjusted weight; already near target, so the 20% no-trade band left the position unchanged. |
| ZTS Zoetis Inc. | 7.1% | Unearned doubt | New | The market's doubt looks unearned — Institutional selling, valuation pullback, and sentiment weakness with no fundamental deterioration or hard negatives reported. Added at a full volatility-adjusted weight. |
| DPZ Domino's Pizza, Inc. | 6.9% | Unearned doubt | Unchanged | The market's doubt looks unearned — Price recovery, valuation commentary, and institutional buying; no fundamental damage or catalyst. Sized at a full volatility-adjusted weight; already near target, so the 20% no-trade band left the position unchanged. |
| PTC PTC Inc. | 6.3% | Open debate | Unchanged | A genuine, still-unresolved debate rather than proven trouble, so its score was left unchanged — 3D printing partnership signals strategic pivot; market questions execution and competitive positioning amid sector uncertainty. Sized at a full volatility-adjusted weight; already near target, so the 20% no-trade band left the position unchanged. |
| IT Gartner, Inc. | 6.3% | Open debate | Unchanged | A genuine, still-unresolved debate rather than proven trouble, so its score was left unchanged — Weak subscription revenue growth signals real secular headwind; stock recovering but fundamental question unresolved. Sized at a full volatility-adjusted weight; already near target, so the 20% no-trade band left the position unchanged. |
| VEEV Veeva Systems Inc. | 5.3% | Unearned doubt | Unchanged | The market's doubt looks unearned — Price pullback with no fundamental damage; insider buying, valuation recovery, steady execution narrative. Sized at a modest volatility-adjusted weight; already near target, so the 20% no-trade band left the position unchanged. |
| AOS A. O. Smith Corporation | 5.0% | Unearned doubtHalf · confirm the turn | Unchanged | The market's doubt looks unearned — Price decline with no hard negatives; dividend maintained; pure price action/sentiment. Sized at a deliberate half weight until the turn confirms; already near target, so the 20% no-trade band left the position unchanged. |
| IDXX IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. | 5.0% | Unearned doubtHalf · confirm the turn | Unchanged | The market's doubt looks unearned — Price weakness with no hard negatives; valuation debate and DCF analysis only. Sized at a deliberate half weight until the turn confirms; already near target, so the 20% no-trade band left the position unchanged. |
| INTU Intuit Inc. | 4.7% | Open debate | New | A genuine, still-unresolved debate rather than proven trouble, so its score was left unchanged — Stock down 51% YTD with no hard negatives reported; market pricing uncertainty about future business model/growth trajectory. Added at a modest volatility-adjusted weight. |
| FDS FactSet Research Systems Inc. | 4.4% | Unearned doubt | Unchanged | The market's doubt looks unearned — No hard negatives or structural concerns. Recent news shows recurring revenue growth supporting margins; pure valuation pullback. Sized at a modest volatility-adjusted weight; already near target, so the 20% no-trade band left the position unchanged. |
| ADBE Adobe Inc. | 3.9% | Open debateHalf · confirm the turn | Unchanged | A genuine, still-unresolved debate rather than proven trouble, so its score was left unchanged — AI disruption concerns + CFO departure create unresolved secular questions; no earnings miss or guidance cut evident. Sized at a deliberate half weight until the turn confirms; already near target, so the 20% no-trade band left the position unchanged. |
Screened out this rebalance as earned doubt (the overlay judged the weakness real, not sentiment): TTD, ROL, PODD, PNR, CLX, BSX, FSLR, LVS, ACN, COIN, MCD.
Unearned doubt Price or sentiment weakness with no real damage — the doubt the strategy wants to own.
Constructive catalyst Positive news lifted the score.
Open debate A real, unresolved question — score left unchanged.
Half · confirm the turn Promising but unproven, so deliberately given half weight.
Weight = signal strength ÷ volatility, capped 15% per name / 30% per sector. Action reflects a 20% no-trade band — companies already near target are left untouched. Same inputs always produce the same weights: a mechanical, repeatable process. Research evidence for your own judgment — not investment advice.